NFL Legal Sports Betting Forecasted for Stagnant Growth in 2026

The American Gaming Association projects a nearly flat legal NFL betting handle of $29.5 billion for the 2026 season. This lack of growth is attributed to the rise of prediction markets, which are drawing business away from traditional sportsbooks.

What Happened

The American Gaming Association (AGA) estimates that commercial U.S. sportsbooks will process approximately $29.5 billion in wagers on NFL games during the upcoming 2026 season. This figure represents almost no change from the $29.3 billion recorded a year prior, indicating a significant stall in the growth of legal professional football betting, according to the Press of Atlantic City.

The AGA attributes this largely static forecast to the rapid expansion of prediction markets, such as Kalshi. These platforms allow users to place “yes” or “no” wagers on the outcomes of various events, including sports games, elections, weather patterns, and political developments. This type of wagering is reportedly diverting potential handle from regulated sportsbooks.

Key Details

• The AGA projects a 2026 legal NFL betting handle of $29.5 billion, nearly unchanged from the previous year’s $29.3 billion (Press of Atlantic City).
• Prediction markets like Kalshi allow wagers on event outcomes, encompassing sports, elections, and other topics (Press of Atlantic City).
• Three major sportsbooks, FanDuel, DraftKings, and Fanatics, have reportedly launched their own prediction market products for the 2026 NFL season (Press of Atlantic City).
• The casino industry alleges that prediction markets constitute illegal, untaxed sports betting, leading to ongoing legal challenges in at least 20 states (Press of Atlantic City).
• Prediction markets assert their products are not gambling but rather investing, falling under the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (Press of Atlantic City).
• New Jersey Attorney General Jennifer Davenport filed a petition with the U.S. Supreme Court on September 2, seeking a ruling on whether prediction market companies operate as illegal, untaxed sports betting platforms (Press of Atlantic City).

Why It Matters

The forecasted stagnation in NFL betting growth highlights a critical shift in the regulated sports wagering market. The emergence and expansion of prediction markets present a competitive challenge to established sportsbooks, prompting some major operators to introduce their own prediction products.

The ongoing legal disputes regarding the classification of prediction markets, whether they constitute gambling or investing, have significant implications for regulatory frameworks and tax revenue. The resolution of these court cases, including the petition to the U.S. Supreme Court by New Jersey, could redefine the landscape of digital wagering in the United States.

What’s Next

New Jersey Attorney General Jennifer Davenport’s petition to the U.S. Supreme Court aims to resolve the debate over whether prediction market companies are offering illegal, untaxed sports betting, which should be subject to state gambling laws. A ruling on this matter could establish legal precedents for the oversight and taxation of these emerging platforms.

Originally reported by Press of Atlantic City·Published 10 Sep 2026, 13:45