Notre Dame’s Championship Odds Decline on Kalshi Prediction Market

Notre Dame’s implied probability of winning the College Football National Championship has fallen from 18% to 13% on the Kalshi prediction market. This shift places Notre Dame in a tie with Ohio State at the top of the market, according to a Sports Illustrated report published on August 23, 2026.

What Happened

Notre Dame, which initially led the National Championship prediction board on Kalshi with an 18% implied probability, has seen its price decrease to 13% in the period leading up to the season’s start, according to Sports Illustrated. This adjustment occurred with approximately one week remaining before the season commences. Currently, Notre Dame is tied with Ohio State at 13% to win the championship.

A successful trade of $10 on Notre Dame winning the National Championship on Kalshi would result in a profit of $62.46, as reported by Sports Illustrated. Notre Dame is one of five teams that currently hold an implied probability of 10% or better to secure the National Championship title, according to the same report.

Key Details

• Notre Dame’s implied probability on Kalshi’s National Championship market decreased from 18% to 13% since the market opened (Sports Illustrated).
• The team is now tied with Ohio State at 13% for the highest implied probability to win the National Championship (Sports Illustrated).
• Five teams, including Notre Dame, currently possess an implied probability of 10% or higher to win the championship (Sports Illustrated).
• A $10 trade on Notre Dame winning the National Championship yields a $62.46 profit (Sports Illustrated).
• Notre Dame’s schedule includes opponents from the bottom four of the Big Ten and bottom three of the ACC from the previous season (Sports Illustrated).
• The team lost running backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, who were reportedly first-round NFL Draft picks and combined for over 2,000 rushing yards and 29 touchdowns last season (Sports Illustrated).
• Notable pass catchers Malachi Fields, Eli Raridon, and Will Pauling also departed for the NFL, while Jordan Faison remains (Sports Illustrated).
• Notre Dame kicks off its season against Wisconsin at Lambeau Field, where it is a 90% favorite in Kalshi’s game market (Sports Illustrated).

Why It Matters

The adjustment in Notre Dame’s implied probability on a regulated prediction market like Kalshi indicates a shift in market perception regarding their championship prospects. This change, occurring just prior to the season, reflects how market participants are valuing factors such as schedule strength and player departures, which are noted as having potentially significant impacts on the team’s performance. The presence of five teams with 10% or higher implied probabilities suggests a perceived competitive landscape for the upcoming College Football National Championship, according to Sports Illustrated.

What’s Next

Notre Dame is scheduled to begin its season on the Sunday slate of Week 1, facing Wisconsin at Lambeau Field in Green Bay. The team is designated as a 90% favorite in Kalshi’s game market for this initial matchup, according to Sports Illustrated.

Originally reported by Sports Illustrated·Published 23 Aug 2026, 15:00