Donald Trump Jr. Urges GOP to Support Prediction Markets

Donald Trump Jr. advised Republican state attorneys general in New Orleans this spring against regulating prediction markets, arguing they already have federal oversight. This stance is taken while 20 states are engaged in litigation over prediction market legality and tax revenue.

What Happened

Donald Trump Jr., son of the president, has urged Republican state leaders to refrain from regulating prediction markets, according to The New Republic. He reportedly conveyed this message to a gathering of GOP state attorneys general in New Orleans this spring, as reported by The New York Times, cited by CNBC. Trump Jr. asserted that existing gambling businesses are attempting to undermine prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi to protect their “monopolies.”

According to four anonymous sources cited by The New York Times, Trump Jr. maintained that prediction markets are already subject to federal government oversight (Yahoo News). This message signaled a directive to avoid regulating these markets.

Key Details

• Donald Trump Jr. serves as an adviser for Kalshi, a role he assumed in January last year, and is on the board of Polymarket, holding a stake through his investment firm 1789 Capital (NY Mag).
• Both Republican and Democratic state governments are pursuing legal action against prediction markets, with 20 states currently engaged in litigation concerning whether these markets fall under sports gambling laws (The New Republic).
• In July, 44 states issued a letter characterizing prediction markets as a “new form of casino” that poses risks to young individuals. In March, Arizona became the initial state to file criminal charges against Kalshi for facilitating betting on elections and operating an illegal gambling business (The New Republic).
• States are seeking to recover an estimated $2 billion annually in state tax revenue, as per research from the Tax Foundation (The New Republic).
• The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), an agency overseeing derivatives, has historically not sued state governments over regulations until this year, when it initiated legal action against nine states, all led by Democratic governors (The New Republic).

Why It Matters

The conflict surrounding prediction markets highlights a growing tension between federal and state regulatory approaches to emerging financial instruments. The involvement of a high-profile political figure like Donald Trump Jr., who also has direct financial ties to these platforms, underscores the political and economic stakes involved (NY Mag). State governments are concerned about tax revenue and potential social impacts, labeling these markets as a new form of casino (The New Republic). Conversely, the president reportedly advocates for prediction markets, suggesting the CFTC provides sufficient regulation, even as the agency has recently taken unprecedented legal action against multiple states (The New Republic).

What’s Next

The issue of prediction markets is anticipated to reach the Supreme Court. The White House is expected to support these businesses against legal restrictions (The New Republic). Despite concerns regarding betting on political and international events, the current administration does not appear to be deterred by these challenges (The New Republic).

Originally reported by The New Republic·Published 27 Aug 2026, 16:39