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Trump-Era Prediction Market Rule Draws Broad Opposition

Proposed regulations for prediction markets by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), initiated during the Trump administration, are facing strong public pushback. Lawmakers, Native American tribes, and consumer advocates have voiced opposition to the rule, according to public comments reviewed on Monday, July 27, 2026.

What Happened

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) introduced a proposal last month to set regulatory boundaries for prediction markets, which enable users to place wagers on various outcomes (Reuters). This proposed rule, originating from the Trump administration, has since elicited widespread opposition from diverse groups, including lawmakers, Native American tribes, and consumer advocacy organizations (Reuters, Europesays).

Public comments reviewed on Monday, July 27, 2026, indicate significant pushback against the proposed framework (Reuters). These comments represent a range of perspectives regarding the regulation of the burgeoning prediction market industry, which facilitates wagering on events such as sports outcomes (Reuters).

Key Details

  • The proposed rule was put forth by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) (Reuters).
  • The proposal originated during the Trump administration (Reuters, Europesays).
  • Opposition has come from lawmakers, Native American tribes, and consumer advocates (Reuters, Europesays).
  • The comments were made in response to the CFTC’s proposal concerning prediction markets (Reuters).
  • Prediction markets allow users to place yes/no wagers on various outcomes (Reuters).
  • Senators Lisa Murkowski and Brian Schatz have urged the CFTC to consult with tribes and extend the comment period for the rule, according to Native News Online.
  • Organizations like Demand Progress oppose the proposal “in its entirety,” stating it fails “as a matter of law, as a matter of policy, and as a matter of institutional competence,” as detailed in their July 24, 2026, letter to Chairman Michael S. Selig.
  • Demand Progress’s letter alleges that the proposal functions as a “green light” for largely unregulated financial speculation platforms to offer nationwide sports betting, bypassing existing state and tribal protections.
  • The Demand Progress letter cites Kalshi, valued at $22 billion with an annualized volume of $178 billion in trades monthly, as an example. It claims sports-related contracts account for 89 percent of Kalshi’s total fee revenue, suggesting these companies operate more like sportsbooks than derivative exchanges.

Why It Matters

The extensive opposition to the Trump administration’s proposed prediction market rule highlights ongoing concerns regarding the regulation of the rapidly expanding prediction market industry (Reuters, Europesays). The debate underscores the challenges in classifying and overseeing platforms that facilitate wagers on various outcomes, particularly given the involvement of diverse stakeholders ranging from lawmakers to tribal authorities and consumer protection groups (Reuters, Native News Online, Demand Progress). The claim by Demand Progress that the rule could enable widespread sports betting, bypassing established community and mental health protections, signals a significant policy conflict within regulated markets.

What’s Next

Senators Lisa Murkowski and Brian Schatz have urged the CFTC to consult with tribes and extend the comment period for the proposed rule (Native News Online). The agency will likely continue to review public comments as it considers the future of the prediction market regulatory framework.

Originally reported by ReutersPublished

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