Prediction Markets See Record $4.13 Billion Daily Volume in October

Prediction markets achieved their strongest month on record in October, with average daily volume increasing by 55% month-over-month to $4.13 billion, according to a Jefferies report. This surge in trading activity was primarily driven by the return of major sports seasons, including college football and the NFL.

What Happened

Average daily volume (ADV) across yes-or-no exchanges climbed 55% month over month to $4.13 billion in October, setting a new record, according to a report by Jefferies analyst Daniel Fannon. Open interest also reached a new high, rising 45% from September to $3.27 billion, as reported by GamblingNews.

Sports contracts continued to be the primary driver of this activity, increasing by 55% in October to approximately $2.98 billion in average daily volume. This was supported by the NFL and college football seasons, alongside the commencement of the 2026-27 NBA campaign, as detailed by GamblingNews. Sports contracts represented 78% of the total market volume, consistent with September figures.

Non-sports markets also experienced substantial growth, with their average daily volume rising 55% month over month to $843 million. This mirrored the growth rate observed in sports contracts and was potentially influenced by the upcoming US midterm election cycle and ongoing interest in political outcomes, according to GamblingNews and Cryptopolitan.

Key Details

• Average daily volume across prediction markets reached a record $4.13 billion in October, a 55% month-over-month increase, as reported by Jefferies analyst Daniel Fannon (GamblingNews).
• Sports contracts accounted for approximately $2.98 billion of the daily volume, representing 78% of the total market activity (GamblingNews).
• Open interest in prediction markets also set a new high, rising 45% from September to $3.27 billion (GamblingNews).
• Polymarket’s average daily volume reached $655 million in October, a 50% increase from the previous month, maintaining a 17% share of platforms tracked by Jefferies (GamblingNews).
• Rothera, a joint venture between Robinhood Markets and Susquehanna International Group, reported a 55% monthly rise in average daily volume to $49 million (GamblingNews).

Why It Matters

The record-setting volumes and open interest figures indicate a period of significant growth and increasing activity within the prediction market sector. The sustained dominance of sports contracts, which comprise 78% of the total market volume, underscores the sector’s heavy reliance on major sporting events for trading activity, as highlighted by GamblingNews. This concentration suggests that while the market is expanding, its foundational engagement is closely tied to the sports calendar.

The comparable growth in non-sports categories, particularly political contracts ahead of the US midterm elections, suggests diversification potential. However, the figures also emphasize the ongoing challenge for operators to broaden audience engagement beyond sports into other areas like finance and cryptocurrency to ensure sustained market development and mitigate dependency on seasonal sports events, according to GamblingNews.

What’s Next

With Election Day occurring on November 4, attention in non-sports categories could shift towards cryptocurrency and financial market contracts, according to GamblingNews. For operators, broadening activity into politics, finance, and other subjects remains an essential part of the market’s development, especially for those aiming to expand their audiences.