Election betting faces strong public disapproval – A significant majority of Americans do not support using prediction markets to bet on election outcomes, according to a new poll.
What Happened
As the midterm elections approach, a Reuters/Ipsos poll, provided to Fortune, reveals that 60% of U.S. adults oppose the practice of wagering on election results via prediction markets. Only 13% support it, with 24% remaining unsure. This widespread opposition spans political divides, with 69% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans expressing disapproval.
Despite this public sentiment, major news organizations are increasingly incorporating real-time prices from prediction markets into their election coverage. CBS News announced on September 30 that it would feature live odds from Kalshi alongside its own polling data. Kalshi has also established similar agreements with CNN and CNBC and licenses vote counts and race calls from the Associated Press. Notably, CBS News and CNN now share ownership under Skydance, following its acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery on October 6.
Concerns about the concentration of trading volume were highlighted by an August analysis from the Anti-Corruption Data Collective. Their findings show that on Polymarket’s global platform, the top 1% of wallets account for 68% of the trading volume in 2026 congressional markets, and 80% of these markets involve fewer than 100 wallets.
Key Details
- Majority Opposition: 60% of U.S. adults oppose election betting via prediction markets.
- Bipartisan Disagreement: Opposition is strong across party lines, with 69% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans against it.
- Gambling Perception: Three-quarters of Americans consider prediction-market wagering a form of gambling.
- Low Participation: Only 7% of respondents have ever used a prediction market to bet money.
- Media Integration: CBS News, CNN, and CNBC are integrating real-time odds from platforms like Kalshi into their election coverage.
- Concentrated Trading: On Polymarket, the top 1% of wallets drive 68% of trading volume in certain congressional markets.
- Poll Methodology: Ipsos surveyed 4,506 U.S. adults from Sept. 30 to Oct. 5, with a margin of error of plus or minus 1.5 percentage points.
Why It Matters
The stark contrast between public opinion and the increasing integration of prediction market data into mainstream news coverage raises questions about journalistic ethics and public perception of election integrity. Alec Tyson, a senior vice president and lead pollster at Ipsos U.S. Public Affairs, noted, “Most view prediction markets as a form of gambling, and it’s clear that they do not see elections or government decision-making as appropriate subjects for it.” This sentiment suggests a public discomfort with treating democratic processes as a betting spectacle.
While global trading volume on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket has more than doubled recently, reaching $53 billion in July, much of this growth is driven by sports betting, which offers frequent events and rapidly changing odds. Dustin Gouker, a gambling industry analyst, explains that elections lack the constant, real-time shifts that make sports markets so engaging for traders. This indicates that while the overall prediction market industry is growing, election betting itself may not be as inherently popular as other forms of wagering, aligning with the poll’s findings on public disapproval. The concentrated trading volumes by a small number of participants also raise concerns about potential market manipulation and the actual representation of broad public sentiment in these ‘odds.’