Red faces at the SMF? A draft of the report behind the push to double Machine Games Duty has surfaced with staff comments still attached, and the industry has pounced.
What Happened
Days before Chancellor John Healey’s Budget, a draft of a key report by the Social Market Foundation (SMF) surfaced online, complete with internal comments from its most senior staff. The report, titled ‘Addressing the harm’, was launched in June and advocates for doubling the Machine Games Duty (MGD) on Category B machines from 20% to 40%, potentially raising an estimated £275 million–£458 million annually. The leaked draft, published by Guido Fawkes on Tuesday, revealed SMF director Theo Bertram questioning the certainty of displaced workers finding new employment and the strength of causal links between machines and crime. Chief economist Gideon Salutin acknowledged that individual workers might not find new jobs but maintained national employment growth, and softened a ‘causal link’ to ‘correlation’ regarding crime.
Key Details
- A draft of the SMF’s ‘Addressing the harm’ report, pushing for a doubled MGD, was accidentally published with internal staff comments.
- SMF director Theo Bertram questioned the confidence in job displacement claims and the causality between machines and crime.
- Chief economist Gideon Salutin admitted no guarantee for individual workers finding new jobs but asserted national employment growth, and changed ‘causal link’ to ‘correlation’ for crime.
- The leak occurred just days before Chancellor John Healey’s Budget, where a rise in MGD is widely expected.
- The gaming industry, including Greg Knight (CEO of Jenningsbet) and Carl Templeton-Smith (CTS Retail & Equine Consulting), has strongly criticized the SMF and the reliability of the research.
- Alex Ballinger MP, who penned the report’s foreword and led a letter from 90 Labour MPs demanding a 40% rate, has faced scrutiny regarding policy reliance on the research.
Why It Matters
The surfacing of this draft report, with its internal critiques, casts a significant shadow over the credibility of the Social Market Foundation’s research, especially given its direct influence on potential government policy. With a rise in MGD widely anticipated in the upcoming Budget, questions about the thoroughness and objectivity of the evidence supporting such a substantial tax increase are now prominent. The gaming industry’s swift and strong reaction highlights the perceived threat to jobs and businesses, particularly bingo halls and seaside arcades. Furthermore, the incident raises concerns about the integrity of policymaking if Members of Parliament, such as Alex Ballinger MP, are relying on research that may not have been fully scrutinised internally, potentially leading to ill-informed legislative decisions impacting a significant sector.